Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The average figure of per-day killings per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official statistics. However, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to point to better national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the least amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it might hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.